Executive Summary
This article analyzes Turkey's foreign policy shift since 2016 towards strategic autonomy, moving from a defensive stance to an offensive 'leash-slipping' strategy. It argues that Turkey, as a dissatisfied secondary state, seeks to expand its autonomy and establish itself as a regional power, challenging the existing international order. The study examines historical shifts in Turkish foreign policy, including isolationism and bandwagoning, and contrasts them with its current revisionist approach.
Why It Matters
This document offers a novel framework for understanding the foreign policy of secondary states, particularly Turkey, providing insights into how nations seek to expand their influence and challenge established power dynamics. Defense and geopolitical analysts should care about this as it redefines strategic autonomy beyond traditional defensive postures, highlighting potential shifts in global power structures.
Key Takeaways
- Turkey's post-2016 foreign policy is characterized by a shift from defensive strategies (bandwagoning, isolationism) to an offensive pursuit of strategic autonomy.
- The concept of "leash-slipping" is introduced as a strategy where secondary states attempt to build a new regional or global pole without direct military confrontation.
- Turkey's actions, including defiance towards the US and engagement with non-Western powers, are interpreted as efforts to expand its autonomy and establish itself as a regional leader.
- The paper challenges traditional International Relations theories by suggesting that the struggle for autonomy is a primary motive for state behavior, leading to both defensive and offensive actions.
Strategic Relevance
This analysis provides a critical lens for understanding the evolving foreign policy of middle powers like Turkey, which are increasingly asserting independence from traditional alliances. It highlights the potential for new regional power centers to emerge, impacting global stability and the balance of power. The concept of "leash-slipping" offers a valuable framework for anticipating future state behaviors in a multipolar world.