Executive Summary
This paper analyzes the concept and practice of strategic autonomy in Turkish foreign policy within a multipolar international order. It argues that Turkey's pursuit of autonomy is shaped by structural orientation, political motives, and economic infrastructure. The authors highlight contradictions between geopolitical imperatives and domestic policy priorities, as well as the neglect of geoeconomic dimensions.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it dissects Turkey's evolving foreign policy doctrine of strategic autonomy in a multipolar world, offering insights into its motivations, implementation, and inherent contradictions. Understanding Turkey's balancing act between traditional alliances and new partnerships is vital for assessing regional stability and alliance dynamics.
Key Takeaways
- Turkey's strategic autonomy is driven by a desire to reduce dependence on traditional Western allies and forge new ties with non-Western powers like Russia and China.
- The concept of strategic autonomy in Turkey is shaped by structural orientation, political motives (including regime security), and economic infrastructure.
- Turkish strategic autonomy faces challenges from contradictions between geopolitical imperatives and domestic policy priorities, and a lack of focus on geoeconomic fundamentals.
- Turkey's strategic autonomy is not merely a hedging strategy but also serves domestic political objectives, including regime security.
- The paper highlights the importance of economic security and robust political economy fundamentals for sustainable strategic autonomy, which Turkey currently lacks.
- The authors argue that strategic autonomy is a complex, context-dependent concept, not a predetermined or mechanical outcome of hedging behavior.
Strategic Relevance
This analysis provides critical insights into Turkey's foreign policy trajectory, which directly impacts NATO cohesion, regional power balances in the Middle East and Black Sea, and the broader shift towards a multipolar world order. Understanding Turkey's strategic calculus is essential for anticipating its actions and their implications for international security.