Executive Summary
This study analyzes the post-Cold War regionalization of Turkish foreign and security policy, identifying two distinct regionalist turns. The first wave, in the 1990s, was reactive to regional insecurities, while the second, from the 2000s, saw Turkey assert itself as an activist regional power with a more defined identity. The paper compares these eras, highlighting shifts in strategic outlook, economic drivers, and relations with key regional actors.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it provides a detailed historical and analytical framework for understanding the evolution of Turkey's strategic posture and regional engagement since the Cold War, offering insights into its current foreign policy drivers and challenges.
Key Takeaways
- Turkish foreign policy underwent two distinct regionalist turns post-Cold War, shifting from reactive engagement to assertive regional power projection.
- The second regionalist turn (2000s) under the AKP government emphasized a 'normative power' identity, economic incentives, and a 'zero problems with neighbors' approach, though with mixed results.
- Turkey's relations with Israel significantly deteriorated in the second regionalist era, contrasting with their strategic partnership in the 1990s, impacting regional influence.
Strategic Relevance
The study provides a critical understanding of Turkey's evolving strategic autonomy and its role as a regional actor, essential for assessing geopolitical dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea, Middle East, and Caucasus. It highlights the interplay between domestic politics, historical legacies, and regional security concerns in shaping a key NATO member's foreign policy.