Executive Summary
This paper presents a quantitative modeling framework to simulate the non-kinetic strategic deterrence effects of rare earth supply disruptions. Using a combination of AI models (GNN, LSTM) and differential equations, it analyzes how weaponizing resource supply can degrade an adversary's military capabilities over time. The model identifies critical vulnerabilities, lag windows, and collapse points in systems like the F-35, providing a basis for strategic competition and policy design.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense analysts as it provides a quantitative framework to understand and model the strategic impact of rare earth supply chain disruptions on military capabilities, offering insights into non-kinetic deterrence and resource weaponization.
Key Takeaways
- A new quantitative framework models non-kinetic deterrence against rare earth supply disruptions, integrating AI simulation.
- The model demonstrates that institutional deterrent signals can rapidly degrade warfighting capabilities with significant tempo effects.
- Rare earths are weaponized, creating systemic vulnerabilities for nations dependent on them for military and high-end manufacturing.
- The REG-CAP model (Resource-Equipment-Generation Gap-Capability) maps the path from supply disruption to warfighting capability collapse.
- The framework is cross-country adaptable and can be used for contextual and counterfactual reasoning in strategic resource competition.
- The study highlights the strategic importance of rare earths as 'non-kinetic strategic weapons' that can create a 'war power vacuum' without direct conflict.
Strategic Relevance
This framework offers a critical tool for understanding and mitigating the strategic vulnerabilities arising from rare earth dependencies. It enables policymakers and military strategists to simulate and predict the impact of non-kinetic deterrence, informing policy design for resource competition governance and national security.