Executive Summary
This article analyzes the US-China trade war during the Trump administration, examining its historical context and the role of the WTO. It highlights the escalation of trade conflicts, driven by economic, technological, and hegemonic rivalry. The paper suggests this ongoing saga may lead to a reconstruction of the multilateral trading system.
Why It Matters
This document provides a crucial historical and strategic perspective on the US-China trade war, highlighting its roots in hegemonic rivalry and its impact on the global trading system, which is vital for understanding current and future geopolitical dynamics.
Key Takeaways
- The US-China trade war is not a new phenomenon but a continuation of historical hegemonic rivalry, dating back to the Opium Wars.
- The conflict has escalated beyond the WTO's normative framework, challenging the existing international trading order.
- The current impasse in US-China trade relations may ultimately lead to a necessary reconstruction of the multilateral trading system.
- The concept of 'national security' is often used to justify trade actions, but its application needs clarity and adherence to international law.
- A 'trade war' differs from a 'trade dispute' by its broader scope and disregard for established normative frameworks, potentially impacting global peace and security.
Strategic Relevance
The paper underscores the strategic importance of economic competition as a facet of great power rivalry, demonstrating how trade conflicts can reflect and exacerbate geopolitical tensions. It highlights the erosion of multilateral institutions like the WTO and the potential for a new global economic order.