Executive Summary
This paper from RAND explores the future of policy analysis amidst AI-driven change, eroding trust, and shifting political authority. It outlines four plausible scenarios for policy analysis by 2035 and proposes an agenda for institutional leadership to adapt. The authors argue that incremental changes are insufficient, necessitating a fundamental reimagining of the field to remain credible and valuable.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and intelligence analysts as it examines how AI and societal shifts impact the foundational processes of policy analysis, which directly informs national security and strategic decision-making. Understanding these changes is vital for maintaining effective intelligence assessment and strategic planning in a rapidly evolving global landscape.
Key Takeaways
- Policy analysis faces a watershed moment due to AI, declining trust, and political shifts, requiring more than incremental adaptation.
Source evidence · PDF page 4
Drawing on a scenario exercise conducted at RAND, we develop four plausible futures for policy analysis and use these futures to identify common stresses on analysts, organizations, and the broader epistemic systems that support democratic decisionmaking. We contend that incremental adaptation of tools and methods will be insufficient without clarity about the north star toward which policy analysis should evolve, and without concurrent institutional and practitioner-level cultural shifts.
- Organizations must invest in AI validation, deep uncertainty tools, and integrated narrative strategies to ensure analysis remains relevant and understood.
Source evidence · PDF page 14
Independent research organizations need to demonstrate through their own practice what independent, co-productive analysis looks like across the futures described here. They should invest in AI audit and validation capacity, normalize the use of deep uncertainty tools in major projects, and embed narrative strategy into analytical design to ensure findings are understood and contextually relevant rather than treating it as an afterthought of dissemination.
- The field needs collective action from universities, research organizations, associations, and funders to reinvent policy analysis for the AI era, rather than waiting for conditions to return to normal.
Source evidence · PDF page 16
Waiting or expecting conditions to return to normal is itself a choice, and a high-risk one. AI, dispersed authority, and eroding trust are already rewriting the conditions under which democratic societies generate and apply knowledge to informing public decisions. The question motivating this paper, which remains the priority focus, is whether practitioners and institutions of policy analysis will reinvent the field fast enough to stay credible, viable, and valuable to the societies that depend upon it.
Strategic Relevance
The paper's insights into the evolving landscape of policy analysis, particularly concerning AI integration and trust in expertise, are strategically relevant for defense organizations. It highlights the need for robust analytical frameworks and institutional adaptation to inform complex national security decisions and maintain strategic advantage in an uncertain future.