Executive Summary
This paper analyzes the U.S.-China technological rivalry through the lens of 'weaponized interdependence,' focusing on semiconductors. It argues that U.S. export controls and chokepoint activation have not led to full decoupling, but rather a dynamic of partial, segmented separation. China responds with defensive reconfiguration and indigenous substitution, creating a new, politicized equilibrium where interdependence persists under heightened strategic tension and restructured supply chains.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it explains the structural transformations in U.S.-China technological competition, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors, and how this dynamic reshapes global supply chains and strategic vulnerabilities. Understanding this 'weaponized interdependence' is key to anticipating future geopolitical and economic shifts.
Key Takeaways
- U.S. export controls on advanced technologies, especially semiconductors, are driving a reaction-counterreaction dynamic with China.
- This dynamic is leading to structural transformations including supply-chain reconfiguration, substitution efforts, and regulatory segmentation.
- The result is not full technological separation but a 'partial, segmented decoupling' where interdependence continues under politicized access rules.
- China's responses include defensive reconfiguration to reduce asymmetric vulnerability and retaliation in areas like rare-earth exports.
Strategic Relevance
The paper highlights how technological interdependence, once seen as a stabilizing force, has become a channel for coercion and counter-coercion, fundamentally altering the strategic landscape between the US and China. This dynamic has profound implications for national security, economic resilience, and the future of global supply chains, particularly in dual-use technologies.