Executive Summary
Chad faces persistent food insecurity from August 2026 to January 2027, exacerbated by rainfall deficits, conflict, and refugee influxes. Eastern provinces and Lac Province are particularly affected by armed groups and deteriorating security, leading to significant food consumption deficits among refugees, IDPs, and host populations. Humanitarian assistance remains crucial, with improved funding, but challenges persist due to high food prices and disrupted livelihoods.
Why It Matters
This report highlights how regional conflicts, such as the one in Sudan and the activities of armed groups like Boko Haram, directly contribute to severe humanitarian crises and food insecurity in neighboring Chad, impacting regional stability and requiring significant international intervention.
Key Takeaways
- Deteriorating security conditions, including attacks by armed terrorist groups and Boko Haram, are a primary driver of food insecurity and displacement in Chad, particularly in Lac Province.
Source evidence · PDF page 2
The security situation has deteriorated across the country, with 31 conflict events affecting 302,654 people between July 15 and August 14, according to ACLED. The eastern provinces hosting refugees and Lac Province are the most affected, accounting for 35 and 42 percent of events, respectively. In the east, the security situation has deteriorated amid the presence of armed groups carrying unauthorized military-grade weapons. In addition to clashes with Chadian forces, these groups threaten the security of refugees, host populations, and humanitarian actors, while causing fatalities and livestock losses. In Lac Province, the threat from Boko Haram persists, including population abductions (19 people were abducted between July 19 and 29 in the departments of Fouli, Mamdi, and Kaya).
- A massive influx of over 940,000 Sudanese refugees and 400,000 Chadian returnees into eastern Chad is straining resources and exacerbating food insecurity for both displaced and host populations.
Source evidence · PDF page 2
The influx of Sudanese refugees continues in the eastern provinces of Ouaddaï, Wadi Fira, Sila, and Ennedi Est, with varying intensity depending on the severity of the conflict in Sudan and the security situation along the border. In June 2026, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 6,337 refugees were newly arrived, compared with 5,262 in July. Despite guarantees from the Chadian government regarding access to the territory and protection, the continued and variable nature of refugee flows makes it difficult for humanitarian organizations to plan and effectively provide assistance. As of August 16, 2026, 942,954 Sudanese refugees and 400,914 Chadian returnees had arrived in Chad.
- Humanitarian food assistance, primarily from WFP, is critical and expected to continue at current levels, serving as the main food source for refugees and displaced persons amidst severe lean season conditions.
Source evidence · PDF page 3
Humanitarian food assistance will remain at least at current levels throughout the outlook period, amid improved funding for humanitarian actors. It will remain the main source of food for refugees, particularly given the prolonged and extremely severe lean season conditions. WFP’s assistance program will continue from August 2026 through January 2027, including assistance to newly displaced people in the Lake Chad Province.
Strategic Relevance
The report underscores the complex interplay between regional conflict, climate change impacts (rainfall deficits), and humanitarian crises, demonstrating how instability in one nation (Sudan) can severely destabilize neighboring countries and create significant challenges for international aid efforts.