Executive Summary
This report analyzes AI proliferation through an economic model, focusing on demand-side factors and the effectiveness of cost-shifting policies. It evaluates five policy levers across thousands of simulated futures to determine how they influence AI adoption across governed and ungoverned channels. The study finds that some policies can backfire, and the success of governance depends on user responsiveness to costs, enforcement effectiveness, and switching costs, rather than solely on AI capability growth.
Why It Matters
This report is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it provides a framework for understanding how AI governance policies can effectively manage or inadvertently accelerate the proliferation of advanced AI capabilities, directly impacting national security and strategic stability.
Key Takeaways
- Compliance burdens on governed AI access can worsen uncontrolled proliferation by pushing users towards ungoverned channels.
- Policy success in shifting users to governed AI access depends on user responsiveness to cost differences, enforcement effectiveness, and switching costs.
- AI governance policies lose traction once AI capabilities become sufficiently valuable, making cost-based interventions ineffective against proliferation.
Strategic Relevance
The report's findings are strategically relevant for policymakers designing AI governance frameworks to mitigate the risks of uncontrolled AI proliferation, highlighting the economic levers and behavioral conditions critical for effective control and preventing unintended consequences that could destabilize global security.