Executive Summary
This RAND report synthesizes insights from 17 scenario-based games conducted in Europe, or with European scenarios, between October 2025 and February 2026, exploring the implications of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It identifies key issues, capabilities, and playbooks Europe needs to navigate potential adverse AGI effects, focusing on preparedness and response. The findings aim to inform policymakers, researchers, and leaders on decisions and strategies for future AGI-facilitated crises.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it outlines how AGI could reshape global power structures, create new challenges for crisis deterrence and defense, and necessitate new strategic frameworks for national security.
Key Takeaways
- AGI poses significant challenges to crisis deterrence, defense, and attribution, requiring new capabilities and playbooks for effective response.
Source evidence · PDF page 6
Key Issue 2: The emergence of advanced AI and AGI creates new challenges for crisis deterrence, defense, verification, attribution, and response.
- Europe needs to develop stronger AGI intelligence gathering, situational awareness, and expertise within its security services to counter potential threats.
Source evidence · PDF page 30
Predd, Joel B., Matt Chessen, and Gregory Smith, Infinite Potential—Insights from the Two Moonshots Scenario: After-Action Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises, RAND Corporation, RRA4230-1, 2025.
- The report highlights the importance of strategic investment in indigenous AI capacity and robust governance frameworks to maintain Europe's influence and protect its interests in an AGI-dominated future.
Source evidence · PDF page 30
Viral Uplift Shenk, Anton, Matt Chessen, Barbara del Castello, Gregory Smith, and Richard S. Girven, Infinite Potential—Insights from the Viral Uplift Scenario: After-Action Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises, RAND Corporation, RRA4727-1, 2025.
Strategic Relevance
The report directly addresses the strategic implications of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) on national security, global power dynamics, and military capabilities. It provides insights into how European nations, NATO, and the EU are preparing for AGI-related crises, including deterrence, defense, and governance challenges, which are critical for future strategic planning and policy development.