Executive Summary
This paper examines how sanctions compliance and controls on advanced conventional weapons (ACWs) can foster confidence-building and stabilization in the South Caucasus, particularly Armenia and Azerbaijan, amidst fragile normalization. It analyzes regional vulnerabilities related to transit, re-export, and dual-use goods, emphasizing the role of institutional capacity and coordinated EU-US action. The core argument is that transparent sanctions compliance acts as an indirect but meaningful confidence-building measure in post-conflict settings.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it highlights how sanctions compliance and export controls on advanced conventional weapons can serve as indirect confidence-building measures in post-conflict regions like the South Caucasus, impacting regional stability and international relations.
Key Takeaways
- Sanctions compliance and ACW controls can act as confidence-building measures in fragile post-conflict environments by increasing transparency and predictability.
- The South Caucasus faces significant structural vulnerabilities to sanctions circumvention due to its geographic position and trade patterns, particularly concerning dual-use goods.
- Coordinated EU and US engagement, focusing on technical assistance and regulatory alignment, is vital for strengthening compliance frameworks and supporting regional stability.
Strategic Relevance
This paper outlines a strategic approach to leveraging sanctions compliance and export controls as tools for regional stabilization and confidence-building, particularly in areas with ongoing geopolitical tensions and post-conflict dynamics. It emphasizes the importance of institutional development and international cooperation in mitigating proliferation risks and fostering responsible state behavior.