Executive Summary
This report analyzes military assistance provided to the EU's Eastern Neighbourhood (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine) from 2010-2025, identifying three distinct phases of EU engagement. It details contributions from the EU, its member states, NATO, the United States, Russia, and other external actors like Türkiye, China, and Israel. The document highlights the significant increase in aid to Ukraine post-2022 and shifts in regional power dynamics.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it provides a comprehensive overview of military assistance dynamics in a critical region, highlighting evolving strategic postures of major powers and their impact on regional security.
Key Takeaways
- EU military assistance to the Eastern Neighbourhood, particularly Ukraine, dramatically increased after Russia's 2022 invasion, largely through the European Peace Facility.
- The United States remained the dominant provider of military assistance to the Eastern Neighbourhood from 2010-2025, though its future role is uncertain post-2025.
- Russia's role as a military supplier to Armenia and Azerbaijan has dwindled since 2020, while its cooperation with Belarus intensified, including nuclear weapons basing.
- NATO played a key coordinating role for military aid to Ukraine and other Eastern Neighbourhood states, focusing on interoperability and training.
- Individual EU member states showed varying willingness to provide lethal aid, with some initially hesitant but most increasing support post-2022.
- Other external actors like Türkiye and Israel provided significant arms to Azerbaijan, while China's role remained limited.
Strategic Relevance
The report outlines the shifting landscape of military aid and security partnerships in the EU's Eastern Neighbourhood, a region of intense geopolitical competition. It underscores the EU's evolving role as a security actor, the enduring influence of the US, and Russia's changing relationships with its neighbors, all of which have profound implications for regional stability and the balance of power.