Executive Summary
This RAND report examines historical lessons from French, Soviet, and Russian overseas basing to anticipate China's long-term global military ambitions. It analyzes motivations, acquisition, activities, and international reactions to overseas bases, focusing on potential risks and implications for U.S. defense planning. The study provides recommendations for the U.S. government and military to counter China's expanding global military presence.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it provides a historical framework to understand and anticipate China's evolving global military footprint, offering insights into potential flashpoints and strategic responses for the U.S. and its allies.
Key Takeaways
- China's global basing ambitions, exemplified by its Djibouti facility, are likely to expand, posing risks of increased regional instability and potential conflict.
- Historical cases show major powers gain basing rights primarily from insecure nations in exchange for security assistance, but these bases are often vulnerable and can draw powers into local conflicts.
- The U.S. should prioritize where to resist Chinese access, avoid over-militarization, emphasize sovereignty in messaging, and reduce host nations' dependence on China.
Strategic Relevance
The report offers a strategic foresight into China's long-term military power projection capabilities and its potential impact on global security dynamics. It highlights the need for proactive U.S. strategies to counter China's influence and mitigate risks of regional destabilization, informing defense planning for the next 10-20 years.