Executive Summary
This article proposes a 'conditional state capacity neoclassical realism' model, arguing that the link between state capacity and military modernization is not direct but depends on conditional mechanisms. Using Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine as a case study, it highlights how seismic events and FPE assessments drive military capability development. This model offers a more nuanced understanding of how states transition from underbalancing to balancing.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it refines the understanding of how state capacity translates into military power and foreign policy shifts, offering a more nuanced theoretical framework for predicting state behavior in international relations. It provides a critical lens for evaluating military modernization efforts and strategic balancing, particularly in the context of major power competition.
Key Takeaways
- The causal link between state capacity and military modernization/balancing is conditional, not direct, as proposed by the new 'conditional state capacity neoclassical realism' model.
- Russia's military modernization and shift to balancing against the West were influenced by specific conditional mechanisms, including the 2008 Georgia war and subsequent reforms.
- The 'foreign policy executive's' assessment of military capabilities and external threats plays a critical role in how state capacity is converted into military power and strategic actions.
- The article offers a theoretical revision to neoclassical realism, providing a more nuanced approach to understanding state-level developments that influence policymaking and foreign policy decisions.
- It bridges neoclassical realist literature with military-technological scholarship, offering deeper insights into how structural and state-level factors shape military-technological decisions and war-making.
Strategic Relevance
This article provides a refined theoretical framework for understanding how states convert their inherent capacity into military power and strategic balancing behavior. It highlights the conditional nature of this process, emphasizing that internal and external factors, as interpreted by the foreign policy executive, significantly influence military modernization and foreign policy shifts. This is strategically relevant for assessing potential adversaries' military build-up, predicting their strategic posture, and understanding the drivers behind shifts from underbalancing to more assertive foreign policies. The Russian case study offers concrete insights into how a major power's strategic calculus evolves.