Executive Summary
This paper argues that a security dilemma between the U.S. and China exacerbates conflict in the South China Sea (SCS). China's strategic intent is to secure the SCS for its nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) based on Hainan, driving the construction of vast surveillance networks. This goal clashes with U.S. interests in freedom of navigation and regional alliances, making cooperation unlikely and increasing conflict risk.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense analysts as it details China's strategic motivations and military infrastructure build-up in the South China Sea, directly impacting regional stability and the U.S.-China security dilemma. It highlights the critical role of the SCS for China's nuclear deterrence and its implications for naval operations and intelligence gathering.
Key Takeaways
- China's extensive multi-domain surveillance network in the SCS is primarily designed for advanced submarine detection to protect its SSBNs.
- The First Island Chain, particularly Taiwan, is a critical geostrategic barrier for China's access to the Pacific and a key point of contention with the U.S.
- The security dilemma between the U.S. and China, intensified by the Ukraine war, severely limits cooperation in the SCS, pushing smaller states towards coexistence rather than collaboration.
- China's strategic intent in the SCS is driven by an underlying security dilemma with the U.S., exacerbated by its need to protect its nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) base on Hainan Island.
- China is building extensive multi-domain surveillance infrastructures in the SCS, including an "Ocean Information Network," primarily to enhance submarine detection capabilities and secure its sea-based nuclear deterrence.
- This effort, alongside the geopolitical significance of the First Island Chain, limits cooperation with other claimants and intensifies great-power rivalry.
Strategic Relevance
The document outlines China's strategic imperative to control the South China Sea for its nuclear deterrence and power projection, directly challenging U.S. influence and regional security. It details the development of advanced surveillance capabilities that could alter naval warfare dynamics and intelligence gathering in the Indo-Pacific.