Executive Summary
The Trump Administration declared China a strategic competitor, escalating a trade war into a broader clash and raising questions of a new Cold War. This article argues that while competitive interests now define the relationship, profound interdependence still underpins it. Despite the rivalry, the US and China must find a balance and manage their competition to avoid a violent confrontation that serves neither's interest, as disengagement is not a viable option for either superpower.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it dissects the foundational dynamics of the US-China rivalry, offering insights into its causes, future trajectory, and the imperative for managed competition rather than outright conflict.
Key Takeaways
- The US-China relationship is characterized by both intense competition and profound interdependence, making containment or disengagement unviable.
- Economic and geostrategic competition between the two superpowers necessitates a balance of interests to avoid violent confrontation.
- China's growing power and assertive foreign policy, including initiatives like BRI and militarization of the South China Sea, are key drivers of the rivalry.
- The article was published in 2019, before the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and further escalation of US-China tensions, providing a foundational perspective on the rivalry's early stages.
Strategic Relevance
Understanding the complex interplay of competition and interdependence between the US and China is vital for anticipating future geopolitical shifts, assessing regional stability, and formulating effective foreign and defense policies. The analysis of drivers like economic policies, military expansion, and international initiatives directly impacts strategic planning.