Executive Summary
This paper analyzes how Russia's war against Ukraine has transformed its political regime. The Kremlin has stabilized its autocracy through intensified repression, binding elites through loyalty tests, and legitimizing the regime with extreme patriotic rhetoric. This represents a shift from a depoliticizing to a politicizing logic, moving from citizen passivity to active mobilization. However, this new logic, while consolidating power in the short term, also introduces risks that could disrupt the authoritarian equilibrium.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it dissects the internal political transformation of Russia directly driven by the war in Ukraine, offering insights into the regime's stability and future trajectory. Understanding these internal dynamics is vital for predicting Russia's strategic behavior and assessing the long-term implications of the conflict.
Key Takeaways
- The war in Ukraine has radicalized Russia's autocratic regime through intensified repression and extreme 'patriotic' legitimation.
- The Kremlin's stabilization strategy now involves active citizen mobilization and competitive elite loyalty, a shift from previous depoliticizing tactics.
- This new politicizing logic, while consolidating power, also introduces inherent risks to the authoritarian equilibrium.
- The war has served as both a need and an opportunity for the Kremlin to boost autocratization.
- The analysis uses Gerschewski's model of autocratic stability (legitimation, repression, co-optation) and V-Dem's Liberal Democracy Index.
- The transformation is top-down, involving intensified repression, patronage, and societal mobilization.
Strategic Relevance
Understanding the internal political transformation of Russia is strategically vital for assessing its long-term stability, its capacity for sustained conflict, and the potential for internal challenges. The radicalization of the regime and its new methods of control directly impact its foreign policy decisions and its relationship with the international community.