Executive Summary
This paper introduces "Entangled Deterrence" to analyze how dual-use emerging technologies destabilize strategic stability in Southern Asia's tripolar nuclear environment. It argues that AI, cyber, and space-based systems create decision compression and C3I entanglement, increasing the risk of inadvertent escalation, as exemplified by the 2019 Balakot Crisis.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it details how emerging dual-use technologies fundamentally alter nuclear deterrence dynamics and strategic stability in a critical tripolar region, demanding new approaches to crisis management and arms control.
Key Takeaways
- Dual-use technologies like AI and cyber capabilities create 'decision compression' and 'C3I entanglement,' destabilizing nuclear deterrence in Southern Asia.
- India's pursuit of credible minimum deterrence is shifting from managed vulnerability to a volatile multi-domain instability spiral due to these technologies.
- The 2019 Balakot Crisis serves as an empirical illustration of how dual-use technologies exacerbate instability dynamics in a real-world scenario.
- Confidence-building measures must be recalibrated to address the unique technological realities of the Indo-Pacific security environment.
Strategic Relevance
The paper's 'Entangled Deterrence' framework offers a critical lens for understanding the qualitative transformation of arms races and deterrence in the age of dual-use technologies. It highlights the increasing risk of inadvertent escalation and the erosion of crisis stability in nuclear-armed regions, directly impacting strategic planning and policy formulation for regional and global powers.