Executive Summary
This academic paper argues that pro-government militias (PGMs) recruited from the ruling elite's ethnic group (co-ethnic PGMs) are more loyal and act as effective force multipliers. This loyalty mitigates principal-agent problems but also polarizes ethnic communities. The study finds that the presence of co-ethnic PGMs is associated with longer and more intense civil conflicts, as they increase a regime's resilience and exacerbate inter-ethnic divisions, making negotiated settlements less likely.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it explains how ethnic ties within pro-government militias can prolong and intensify civil conflicts, offering insights into the complex dynamics of internal warfare and state-sponsored violence. Understanding these mechanisms is vital for predicting conflict trajectories and developing effective stabilization strategies.
Key Takeaways
- Co-ethnic pro-government militias (PGMs) are more loyal to the state and act as effective force multipliers.
- The use of co-ethnic PGMs exacerbates ethnic polarization within a conflict zone.
- Co-ethnic PGMs are empirically linked to longer and more intense civil conflicts globally.
- States use co-ethnic recruitment to mitigate principal-agent problems with militias.
Strategic Relevance
This research provides a critical understanding of how states leverage ethnic ties in irregular warfare, impacting conflict duration and intensity. It highlights the strategic trade-offs of using PGMs, particularly co-ethnic ones, as they can enhance state capacity in the short term but lead to prolonged and more brutal conflicts, complicating post-conflict stabilization and peacebuilding efforts.