2025-07-28-russias-black-sea-strategy-sabanadze-dalay

Executive Summary

This paper analyzes Russia's Black Sea strategy, highlighting its neo-imperial ambitions and resistance to Western influence. It emphasizes that the war in Ukraine is central to Russia's goal of dominating the Black Sea and calls for urgent EU and NATO action to strengthen regional security and deterrence.

Why It Matters

Understanding Russia's enduring strategic objectives in the Black Sea is crucial for shaping effective European and NATO responses to regional security challenges and preventing further Russian expansion.

Key Takeaways

• Russia's war in Ukraine is fundamentally an attempt to secure its long-standing ambition to dominate the Black Sea, viewing it as a critical battleground against Western influence.
  Source evidence · PDF page 4

  The war in Ukraine, to a significant extent, is Russia’s attempt to secure its long-standing ambition to dominate the Black Sea, including critical trade and energy corridors.

• Russia's Black Sea strategy is driven by three enduring priorities: strategic domination against NATO, managing relations with Turkey, and adapting to emerging multipolarity by engaging non-Western actors.
  Source evidence · PDF page 8

  Strategic domination of the Black Sea in the context of ongoing contestation with the Euro-Atlantic community, particularly NATO – Moscow views the Black Sea as a key battleground in its broader geopolitical struggle against Western influence.

• Counterbalancing Russia in the Black Sea requires ensuring Ukraine retains its coastline, particularly Odesa, and demands strengthened cooperation among EU members, the UK, and Turkey amid a reduced US security footprint.
  Source evidence · PDF page 50

  There can be no credible counterbalancing of Russia in the Black Sea without a Ukraine that has a Black Sea coastline. Therefore, the defence of Odesa should form the basis of any joint counterbalancing strategy aimed at preventing Russian domination of the Black Sea.

Strategic Relevance

This analysis provides critical insights into Russia's long-term geopolitical objectives in the Black Sea, informing strategic planning for NATO and EU member states regarding regional security, deterrence, and the future of Ukraine.