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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12, 2026

ISW · Institute for the Study of War ·

Executive Summary

Russian President Putin reiterated his unwavering commitment to original territorial demands in Ukraine and ultimatums against NATO following trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi. He rejects any demilitarized zones, Western security guarantees, and insists on Russia's 2021 demands for NATO. Meanwhile, Starshield restrictions are hindering Ukrainian drone operations, and an IED detonated in St. Petersburg targeting a Russian colonel.

Why It Matters

This document provides a critical daily update on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, detailing Russia's non-negotiable demands, battlefield developments, and significant incidents impacting military operations and strategic stability.

Key Takeaways

  • Putin remains unwilling to compromise on Russia's original territorial demands in Ukraine and its ultimatums regarding NATO's expansion and European security.
    Source evidence · PDF page 2
    Putin is refusing to accept any proposed future demilitarized zone in post-war Ukraine or to abandon his demand that Ukraine hand over the parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts that Russian forces have not seized.
  • SpaceX's Starshield satellite communication network is experiencing recurring in-motion speed restrictions over Ukraine, significantly hindering Ukrainian drone interception and strike capabilities.
    Source evidence · PDF page 4
    Ukrainian officials reported a recurrence of in-motion speed restrictions on SpaceX·s Starshield satellite communications network over Ukraine that is significantly hindering Ukraine·s drone interception efforts and intermediate-range strike campaign.
  • An IED detonated in St. Petersburg, reportedly targeting a colonel from the Russian 6th Air and Air Defense Forces Army, indicating potential internal security challenges or Ukrainian operations within Russia.
    Source evidence · PDF page 4
    An improvised explosive device (IED) detonated in St. Petersburg on November 12, reportedly targeting an unidentified colonel serving in the Russian 6th Air and Air Defense Forces Army (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and the Leningrad Military District [LMD]).

Strategic Relevance

The report highlights Russia's rigid negotiating stance, indicating a prolonged conflict and continued geopolitical tension. Disruptions to critical satellite communications impact Ukraine's operational effectiveness, while internal incidents in Russia suggest potential escalation or destabilization efforts.

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Key Entities

Vladimir PutinRussiaUkraineNATOUnited StatesSpaceX StarshieldAbu DhabiSt. PetersburgKostyantynivkaLuhansk OblastDonetsk OblastZaporizhia Oblast

Best For

Defense AnalystsPolicy MakersIntelligence AnalystsGeopolitical Strategists

Related Themes

Russia-Ukraine WarNATO ExpansionSatellite CommunicationsDrone WarfareGeopolitical NegotiationsInternal Security Threats

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