Executive Summary
This RAND paper assesses the UK and NATO's preparedness for a potential defensive war against Russia by 2030, highlighting vulnerabilities across critical infrastructure, supply chains, and military capabilities. It outlines a scenario involving hybrid warfare, conventional conflict, and societal impacts, urging comprehensive resilience measures.
Why It Matters
The document provides a critical assessment of the UK and NATO's readiness for a high-intensity conflict with Russia, identifying key vulnerabilities and areas for improvement in defense, infrastructure, and societal resilience.
Key Takeaways
- NATO faces a credible threat of peer-level war with Russia by 2030, necessitating urgent preparedness across all domains.
Source evidence · PDF page 3
Threat assessments and warnings from NATO, the EU and national governments suggest there is now a credible threat of peer-level war in Europe by 2030.
- The UK's defense industrial base and critical national infrastructure lack sufficient resilience and coordination to withstand prolonged hybrid and conventional attacks.
Source evidence · PDF page 15
Industrial resilience is not yet fully embedded as a core objective in defence and security planning despite what may be stated in policy documents, with the current approach to crisis management reliant on emergency powers and goodwill ‘making it work’ in a crisis scenario.
- Significant shortfalls exist in UK military recruitment, retention, and the ability to rapidly mobilize forces and industry for a wartime economy.
Source evidence · PDF page 29
As of April 2026, none of the three UK armed forces services have met their target sizes in terms of trained strength, and gaps in critical skills persist across defence industrial sectors.
Strategic Relevance
This analysis is crucial for understanding the strategic challenges facing NATO and the UK in deterring and, if necessary, fighting a potential conflict with Russia. It underscores the need for integrated defense planning, industrial mobilization, and whole-of-society resilience to counter a multi-domain threat.