Executive Summary
Colombia faces expanding food insecurity, with 4.0-4.99 million people needing humanitarian assistance by May 2027, driven by persistent armed conflict, weather shocks, and economic pressures. Organized Armed Groups (OAGs) continue to disrupt livelihoods and market access, increasingly employing asymmetric tactics like explosive drones. The situation is exacerbated by El Niño-induced drought, inflation, and the uneven recovery from a recent earthquake.
Why It Matters
This report highlights how ongoing armed conflict, OAG activities, and their evolving tactics directly exacerbate humanitarian crises and food insecurity in Colombia, impacting regional stability and requiring defense and intelligence analysts to understand the complex interplay of security and humanitarian challenges.
Key Takeaways
- Armed conflict and the activities of Organized Armed Groups (OAGs) are primary drivers of food insecurity and humanitarian needs in Colombia, particularly affecting rural and Indigenous communities.
Source evidence · PDF page 2
Armed conflict in Colombia, characterized by violence, kidnappings, and extortion, disproportionately affects rural, Indigenous, and Afro-Colombian communities and disrupts food and income access. Despite a 2016 peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), armed conflict levels have rebounded since 2023.
- OAGs are increasingly employing asymmetric tactics, including explosive drones and improvised explosive devices, against security forces and critical infrastructure, indicating an evolving threat landscape.
Source evidence · PDF page 7
Competition among OAGs is expected to persist while efforts to disrupt illicit economies are expected to intensify as the government pressures OAG structures. While these actions are likely to weaken armed groups and temporarily disrupt illicit revenue streams, OAGs are likely to increasingly rely on asymmetric tactics, including explosive drones, improvised explosive devices, and attacks against security forces and critical infrastructure, with negative impacts to surrounding communities.
- Between 4.0 and 4.99 million people in Colombia are projected to require humanitarian food assistance through May 2027, due to a combination of conflict, weather shocks, and economic factors.
Source evidence · PDF page 1
Between 4.0 and 4.99 million people are expected to need humanitarian food assistance through May 2027. Needs are likely to vary depending on local impacts and seasonality but broadly increase in early 2027 as seasonal increases in income decline and negative impacts associated with El Niño place further pressure on agricultural and pastoral livelihoods.
Strategic Relevance
The report underscores the strategic challenge posed by non-state armed groups in Colombia, whose control over illicit economies and use of asymmetric tactics directly undermine state authority and contribute to widespread humanitarian crises. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for regional security assessments and counter-insurgency strategies.