Executive Summary
The Houthis are establishing a permit system for transit through the Bab al Mandeb Strait, mirroring Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to increased control over maritime traffic and economic disruption. Iran is also suspected of mapping subsea cables in the Gulf of Oman, potentially for future disruption, and is rebuilding damaged missile bases underground.
Why It Matters
This document details ongoing Iranian and Houthi efforts to assert control over critical maritime chokepoints and strategic infrastructure, which directly impacts global trade, regional stability, and potential military escalation.
Key Takeaways
- The Houthis are implementing a voluntary transit permit system for civilian vessels in the Bab al Mandeb Strait, signaling future intentions to control maritime traffic and impose fees.
Source evidence · PDF page 2
The Houthi-controlled Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC) has reportedly issued voluntary ·transit permits· in recent months that grant civilian vessels safe passage through the Bab al Mandeb Strait. The Houthis· establishment of a permit system sets conditions for the Houthis to exert greater control over maritime traffic through the strait in the future by normalizing the Houthis· regulation of shipping through the waterway.
- Iran may be mapping subsea cable routes in the Gulf of Oman, indicating potential preparations for disrupting critical communication infrastructure in response to possible US-Israeli strikes.
Source evidence · PDF page 4
Iran may have deployed at least four commercial vessels to map subsea cable routes in the Gulf of Oman last month. Iran would need to conduct such reconnaissance before conducting any operation to disrupt and damage regional subsea cables, which Iranian officials have recently threatened to do if the United States and Israel conduct strikes on Iran.
- Iran is undertaking significant excavation and construction at its Garmdareh and Shahroud missile bases to move facilities underground, enhancing their protection against future airstrikes.
Source evidence · PDF page 4
Iran is conducting excavation operations at at least two major missile sites as part of its ongoing efforts to rebuild damaged military bases. BBC Verify, citing satellite imagery from October 2026, reported on November 6 that Iran has conducted significant excavation operations and constructed tunnel entrances at the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force-controlled Garmdareh and Shahroud missile bases in Alborz and Semnan provinces, respectively.
Strategic Relevance
The actions by Iran and the Houthis to control maritime chokepoints and potentially disrupt subsea cables represent a significant threat to global economic security and freedom of navigation. Iran's efforts to harden its missile infrastructure indicate a long-term strategy to maintain its military capabilities despite external pressures.