Executive Summary
The Indo-Pacific region is a focal point for strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China, characterized by military modernization, economic competition, and diplomatic maneuvering. Both powers employ alliances, infrastructure projects, and soft power to secure influence, compelling regional states to adopt hedging strategies. This dynamic environment shapes regional security and economic landscapes, with implications for global stability.
Why It Matters
This document details the multifaceted strategic competition between the U.S. and China in the Indo-Pacific, highlighting military buildups, economic influence, and diplomatic strategies that directly impact regional security and global power dynamics. Defense and geopolitical analysts should care about this document because it provides a comprehensive overview of the evolving great power rivalry, including specific military capabilities and alliance structures, and how it shapes the strategic choices of smaller states.
Key Takeaways
- China significantly expanded its naval capabilities between 2017 and 2025, increasing its submarine fleet to 73 and commissioning the Fujian aircraft carrier to enhance power projection.
Source evidence · PDF page 9
A total of 73 submarines are included in the fleet of Chinese, with 52 being in 2017 and 73 in 2025, including nuclear-powered attack submarine, which is capable of striking strategic targets (Sitompul, 2025). Instead, the Fujian aircraft carrier commissioned in 2023 by the PLAN is a major boost to the capacity of power projection.
- The U.S. maintained a substantial forward-deployed military presence in the Indo-Pacific, while China's naval tonnage increased by 65% since 2017, reflecting a quantitative arms race.
Source evidence · PDF page 11
As a result of 65% increase of naval capacity since 2017, the U.S. had 60,000 personnel and 120 naval vessels within the region, with China having 350 surface ships, 80 submarines, and 2 aircraft carriers (Nawaz et al., 2025).
- Regional states, particularly in ASEAN, exhibit a bifurcated alignment, viewing China as a primary economic partner and the U.S. as the leading security partner, indicating complex hedging strategies.
Source evidence · PDF page 10
As of 2025, the survey states that 65-percent of the countries in ASEAN have viewed China as a more powerful economic partner, and 58-percent had viewed the U.S. as the leading security partner, which is an example of the bifurcated areas of influence caused by such mechanisms (Nawaz et al., 2025).
Strategic Relevance
The document outlines the strategic competition between the U.S. and China in the Indo-Pacific, detailing military modernization, alliance building (Quad, AUKUS), economic initiatives (BRI, IPEF), and diplomatic efforts. It highlights how this rivalry influences regional security architecture, trade routes, and the strategic autonomy of middle and smaller powers, making it crucial for understanding current and future geopolitical shifts.