Executive Summary
The ICRC urges COP31 participants to prioritize climate action and finance for populations in conflict settings, who are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change impacts. It highlights that conflict exacerbates climate fragility and calls for urgent emissions reductions, official recognition of conflict-affected countries' vulnerability, and scaled-up, accessible climate finance.
Why It Matters
This document highlights the critical intersection of climate change and armed conflict, a growing concern for defense analysts as climate impacts increasingly contribute to instability, displacement, and humanitarian crises in conflict zones.
Key Takeaways
- The ICRC calls on COP31 to implement three key actions: reduce emissions, officially acknowledge the vulnerability of conflict-affected countries to climate risks, and scale up climate finance for these regions.
Source evidence · PDF page 2
At COP31, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) urges parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the governing bodies of the Conference of Parties (COP) to commit to three actions so that people enduring armed conflict are not left behind:
- Conflict-affected countries are highly vulnerable to climate change due to weakened adaptive capacities, with over half of the most vulnerable nations experiencing armed conflict.
Source evidence · PDF page 2
Over half the countries considered most vulnerable and least ready to adapt to climate change are enduring armed conflict. Climate change does not directly cause conflict, but conflict does increase the fragility of the institutions, services, infrastructure and governance that are essential to helping people and communities cope with and adapt to a changing climate.
- Climate action and finance are significantly lagging in unstable and conflict-affected settings, often excluding millions due to delivery challenges and risk mitigation strategies.
Source evidence · PDF page 3
Climate action and finance are lagging in highly unstable settings because of the challenges of delivering long-term programming in these contexts. Further, conflict-affected areas within countries, especially in areas not under state control, can often be excluded from climate finance because of risk mitigation strategies, leaving millions of people without this support (Cao et al., 2021).
Strategic Relevance
The convergence of climate change and armed conflict creates complex humanitarian and security challenges, exacerbating existing fragilities and potentially fueling future conflicts. Addressing these issues is crucial for long-term stability and effective humanitarian response in geopolitically sensitive regions.