Executive Summary
This study examines how Russia's strategic culture, shaped by its history of invasions, vast geography, and elite perceptions, drives its assertive geopolitical behavior, particularly in the context of the Ukraine war. It argues that these deep-seated cultural factors often diminish the impact of structural constraints imposed by the European security order. Understanding these cultural dimensions is crucial for comprehending Russia's foreign policy choices.
Why It Matters
This document provides a detailed analysis of the historical and cultural drivers behind Russia's assertive foreign policy, offering critical insights for defense analysts seeking to understand Moscow's strategic calculus and predict its future actions.
Key Takeaways
- Russia's strategic culture is fundamentally shaped by its history of invasions, vast and vulnerable geography, and an elite historically hostile to the West.
Source evidence · PDF page 4
Russia’s strategic culture is generally understood to be the product of three factors: first, a history of invasions and wars; second, a vast, open geographic expanse that is penetrable and lacks strategic depth; and third, the Russian elite, which has always remained hostile toward the West (Sokolsky, 2020).
- Russia's actions, including the invasion of Ukraine, are often driven by a deeply ingrained sense of encirclement and the belief that expansion is necessary for national security.
Source evidence · PDF page 5
The fear of Western encirclement, heightened by NATO’s expansion, sharpens it further (NESA, 2023). So, when Moscow describes its invasion as a defensive act, it’s not merely propaganda; it’s a reflection of this deeply rooted belief that geography has forced Russia to either expand or be threatened.
- Effective engagement with Russia requires European policymakers to move beyond traditional structural deterrence and address the underlying cultural, historical, and psychological factors influencing Moscow's behavior.
Source evidence · PDF page 11
European policymakers must move beyond structural deterrence and engage with the deeper cultural, historical, and psychological dimensions that drive Moscow’s behavior to promote peaceful regional order and develop long-term stability.
Strategic Relevance
Understanding Russia's strategic culture is vital for anticipating its geopolitical moves, especially concerning its perceived security interests in Eastern Europe and its relationship with NATO. This analysis helps explain the persistence of Russian assertiveness despite international pressure and structural constraints.