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Iran Update, October 31, 2026

ISW · Institute for the Study of War ·

Executive Summary

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has directed top military commanders to expand Iran's targeting bank and prepare for retaliation against potential US or Israeli strikes, aiming for

Why It Matters

This document provides a snapshot of ongoing military and diplomatic tensions in the Middle East, highlighting Iran's deterrence strategy, Houthi military actions, and regional negotiation efforts, which are critical for understanding potential conflict escalation and stability in the region.

Key Takeaways

  • Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered military commanders to expand targeting options against US and Israeli assets to achieve
    Source evidence · PDF page 2
    Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei directed Iran·s three top military commanders to prepare to retaliate against US strikes by expanding Iran·s targeting bank, likely part of an Iranian effort to deter the United States and Israel from striking Iran.
  • Iran is willing to continue indirect negotiations through Qatar but demands a complete ceasefire and specific US concessions before direct talks.
    Source evidence · PDF page 2
    Mojtaba ordered the Iranian armed forces to achieve ·maximum deterrence,· respond immediately and effectively to all threats ·without geographical limitations,· and expand Iran·s target bank to include all ·tangible and intangible· US and Israeli assets.
  • Yemeni government-aligned forces, supported by Saudi close air support, successfully repelled Houthi advances in key strategic areas, indicating continued conflict in Yemen.
    Source evidence · PDF page 3
    Yemeni government-aligned forces repelled attempted Houthi advances southeastward along the Taiz-Aden ground line of communication (GLOC) in Maqatirah District, Lahij Governorate, with Saudi close air support (CAS) on October 30 and 31.

Strategic Relevance

The report details Iran's strategic efforts to enhance deterrence against potential US/Israeli strikes and its conditions for de-escalation, alongside ongoing Houthi military operations in Yemen and their impact on regional stability and maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Key Entities

IranUnited StatesIsraelMojtaba KhameneiHouthiSaudi ArabiaYemenQatarIslamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)Artesh

Best For

Defense AnalystsPolicy MakersIntelligence AnalystsMiddle East Specialists

Related Themes

Regional SecurityDeterrenceProxy ConflictsMaritime SecurityDiplomacy

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