Executive Summary
China's strategy in the 2025 Pakistan-India conflict involves a delicate balance of diplomatic, economic, and military instruments. Beijing aims to strengthen its alliance with Pakistan while managing complex relations with India, leveraging normative principles like sovereignty to legitimize its actions. This approach seeks to consolidate influence and shape regional order amidst great power competition.
Why It Matters
This document provides a forward-looking analysis of China's multifaceted strategy in a potential future South Asian conflict, offering insights into Beijing's diplomatic, economic, and military calculus that directly impacts regional stability and great power competition.
Key Takeaways
- China deployed J-10C fighter jets with PL-15 missiles to Pakistan, which were reportedly used by the Pakistan Air Force in the 2025 conflict against India.
Source evidence · PDF page 13
China's strategic partnership with Pakistan was prominently displayed during the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict through the deployment of advanced military hardware. Notably, the Chinese-manufactured J-10C "Vigorous Dragon" fighter jets, equipped with PL-15 air-to-air missiles, were utilized by the Pakistan Air Force.
- China maintains a dual diplomatic strategy, offering robust support to Pakistan while engaging cautiously with India to prevent broader escalation and protect its regional interests.
Source evidence · PDF page 10
China's long-standing strategic cooperation with Pakistan, dubbed an "all-weather friendship," has been a pillar of its South Asian strategy. Throughout the crisis, China reiterated its support for Pakistan, emphasizing cooperation and common interests.
- Pakistan's significant debt to China, approximately $30 billion in 2025, highlights China's economic statecraft and leverage in the region, raising concerns about debt-trap diplomacy.
Source evidence · PDF page 17
China's financial aid to Pakistan, including loans, grants, and debt relief, constitutes a critical component of its economic statecraft, with Pakistan owing China approximately $30 billion in 2025, representing nearly 30% of its external debt.
Strategic Relevance
China's strategic engagement in the Pakistan-India conflict demonstrates its intent to project power, deter adversaries, and reinforce geostrategic objectives in South Asia. This involves balancing traditional alliances with managing complex rivalries, utilizing economic statecraft, military signaling, and diplomatic maneuvering to counter US influence and shape regional security architecture.