Executive Summary
Conflict, particularly the 2025-2026 Afghanistan-Pakistan hostilities, significantly disrupted market functionality and supply chains in Afghanistan, leading to shop closures, reduced physical access, and altered demand patterns. Border closures and localized road disruptions increased commodity prices and caused shortages, especially for essential goods like rice. The severity of these impacts depended on the duration of disruptions, availability of alternative routes, and existing infrastructure.
Why It Matters
This document highlights how regional conflicts directly impact civilian populations through market disruptions and supply chain vulnerabilities, offering critical insights for humanitarian aid, stability operations, and strategic planning in conflict zones.
Key Takeaways
- Conflict disrupts market functionality by causing shop closures and restricting physical access, leading to varied demand responses.
Source evidence · PDF page 1
Conflict affected market functionality through both shop closures and reduced physical access. In areas where insecurity restricted movement, reported market demand decreased. Where markets remained accessible but fewer shops were operating, demand increased, potentially reflecting pressure on remaining vendors and concerns about future shortages.
- Afghanistan-Pakistan border hostilities severely impacted trade flows, increasing prices and reducing commodity availability due to longer, costlier alternative routes.
Source evidence · PDF page 4
The late 2025 and 2026 Afghanistan–Pakistan hostilities resulted in the closure of key border crossings and disrupted the movement of goods between the two countries. Given the importance of Pakistan as one of Afghanistan’s main trade routes, the border closures affected the availability and prices of some imported commodities.
- The severity of supply chain disruptions depends on the duration of road closures, availability of alternative routes, and existing infrastructure, with prolonged isolation leading to severe shortages.
Source evidence · PDF page 6
The findings suggest that the duration of road disruption is an important factor influencing the severity of supply-chain impacts, but duration alone does not determine the outcome. The availability of alternative routes, degree of isolation, seasonal accessibility and existing road conditions also influence whether a road closure develops into a more significant supply-chain disruption.
Strategic Relevance
Understanding the impact of conflict on supply chains and markets is crucial for assessing regional stability, planning humanitarian responses, and mitigating the economic consequences of geopolitical tensions. It informs strategies for resilience building in vulnerable areas.