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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28, 2026

ISW · Institute for the Study of War ·

Executive Summary

Russia continues to support Iranian-backed operations against US allies in the Middle East, providing satellite targeting intelligence to Houthis. The Kremlin seeks economic concessions from the US to fund its war in Ukraine while refusing its own concessions. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict sees ongoing limited ceasefires, drone strikes, and territorial advances.

Why It Matters

This report highlights Russia's multi-faceted strategy of military action in Ukraine, diplomatic maneuvering for economic gain, and active support for proxy conflicts in the Middle East, directly impacting global security and energy markets.

Key Takeaways

  • Russia is actively providing satellite-based targeting intelligence to Houthi forces, enabling strikes against Saudi energy and military sites, demonstrating its support for Iranian-backed operations against US allies.
    Source evidence · PDF page 3
    Russian satellite activity followed a similar pattern around strikes against Saudi infrastructure originating from Iraq, where the Houthis maintain a presence. A Saudi official and a high-ranking Houthi official separately told the Associated Press that Russia is providing satellite-based targeting intelligence to the Houthis, reportedly through Iranian military advisers who are operating in Yemen.
  • The Kremlin is attempting to secure economic concessions from the US to sustain its war effort in Ukraine, while simultaneously refusing to make any concessions for peace negotiations.
    Source evidence · PDF page 2
    High-ranking Kremlin officials are attempting to separate economic agreements with the United States from peace negotiations in order to obtain US economic concessions that will support Russia·s continued war effort while Russia has made no concessions that would enable any meaningful peace negotiations.
  • Unidentified (possibly Russian) unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) struck a cargo ship off the coast of Bulgaria, indicating continued maritime aggression in the Black Sea region.
    Source evidence · PDF page 4
    Three unidentified · possibly Russian · unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) struck a cargo ship off the coast of Bulgaria on October 28.

Strategic Relevance

The document details Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, its diplomatic efforts to secure economic advantages from the US, and its strategic support for Iranian-backed groups in the Middle East. This interconnected approach impacts regional stability, global energy security, and the broader geopolitical balance, particularly concerning US and NATO interests.

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Key Entities

RussiaUkraineKremlinUnited StatesIranHouthisNATOKherson OblastMiddle EastBulgariaSaudi Arabia

Best For

Geopolitical analystsDefense strategistsIntelligence communityPolicymakersAcademics studying international relations

Related Themes

Russia-Ukraine WarMiddle East ConflictUS-Russia RelationsEnergy SecurityDrone WarfareNATO Expansion

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