Executive Summary
This analysis explores future warfare by categorizing factors into constants, trends, and discontinuities, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of "Black Swan" events. It highlights the return of great power competition alongside persistent non-state threats, necessitating a broader understanding of conflict beyond traditional military engagements.
Why It Matters
Understanding the evolving nature of warfare, including the interplay of state and non-state actors and the impact of unpredictable events, is crucial for developing effective defense strategies and maintaining national security.
Key Takeaways
- Future warfare analysis must account for constants, predictable trends, and unpredictable "Black Swan" discontinuities that fundamentally alter the conflict environment.
Source evidence · PDF page 7
After two decades of post–Cold War snakes, so ably described by Jim Woolsey, it is now clear that the dragon is back—we are in a ‘post-Woolseyan’ security environment. In this environment, Western powers are dealing with both state and non-state threats, at the same time and in many of the same places.
- The contemporary security landscape is "post-Woolseyan," characterized by the simultaneous challenge of both resurgent great power adversaries (e.g., Russia, China) and persistent non-state threats.
Source evidence · PDF page 10
Adversaries may expand (and some, notably China, have already expanded) their concept of war far beyond the narrow definition used by Western war colleges. ‘Non-military and trans-military war operations’ as defined by Chinese thinkers in the 1990s, and embodied in China’s ‘Three Warfares Doctrine’ and more recent analyses by Chinese strategists like Zhang Shibo, may include activities such as control of scarce commodities or manufacturing capabilities, strategic real estate acquisition, technology theft, commercial and financial warfare, drug warfare, cyberwarfare, ‘public opinion warfare’, manipulation of legal norms (‘lawfare’), currency manipulation and biowarfare.
- Adversaries are adopting expanded concepts of warfare, including non-military and trans-military operations (e.g., cyberwarfare, economic warfare, biowarfare), requiring Western powers to adapt their strategic thinking and preparedness.
Source evidence · PDF page 12
Instead, a more appropriate approach may be to map the boundaries of the possible future warfare but then recognise the inevitability of shocks, discontinuities and strategic surprises that shift those boundaries in unpredictable ways.
Strategic Relevance
This document is highly relevant for strategic planning, defense policy, and intelligence analysis, as it outlines a framework for understanding and preparing for the complexities of future conflict. It underscores the need for adaptability in the face of strategic surprises and the broadening scope of warfare beyond conventional military engagements, impacting national security and international relations.