Executive Summary
The energy transition in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region presents complex geopolitical challenges and opportunities, shifting from hydrocarbon dependence to renewable energy. This transition may lead to new territorial conflicts over strategic renewable energy sites and alter global alliances, with MENA countries potentially becoming green energy exporters. The region's energy future involves both continuity of past geopolitical tensions and significant transformations in international relations.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense analysts as it outlines how the energy transition in the MENA region will reshape geopolitical dynamics, potentially leading to new conflicts over resources and altering strategic alliances, impacting regional stability and global power balances.
Key Takeaways
- The shift to renewable energy in MENA may trigger new territorial conflicts over land-intensive solar and wind projects, especially in contested border areas.
Source evidence · PDF page 14
However, Hatipoglu (2023) stated that there are still potential risks in the renewable energy transition with high investment in renewable energy that can trigger territorial conflicts in the MENA Region. Renewable energy plants utilizing wind and solar power require considerable land, and suitable "high-capacity" sites are often limited. If these locations overlap with contested territories, dormant conflicts may arise.
- MENA hydrocarbon-producing nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE aim to maintain geopolitical relevance by becoming major exporters of green hydrogen and clean electricity.
Source evidence · PDF page 15
Hydrocarbon-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the potential to maintain their geopolitical relevance through the production of green hydrogen and clean electricity for export, replacing their role as oil and gas exporters (Hatipoglu et al. 2023) (Hafner et al. 2023).
- New geopolitical alignments are emerging, with some MENA countries strengthening energy ties with China for technology and others, like Morocco, focusing on renewable energy exports to Europe.
Source evidence · PDF page 15
On the other hand, North African countries such as Morocco are more inclined to strengthen energy ties with Europe, especially through major projects such as Desertec and renewable energy export plans to Europe (Hatipoglu et al. 2023).
Strategic Relevance
The energy transition in the MENA region has profound strategic implications, as it redefines energy security, creates new vectors for regional competition and conflict, and shifts the basis of international power from fossil fuel control to renewable energy technology and production. This transformation will influence military postures, alliance structures, and economic dependencies globally.