Executive Summary
Ethiopia faces a complex humanitarian crisis in 2026, driven by armed violence, climate shocks, and socio-economic pressures, leading to widespread protection risks. Key concerns include gender-based violence, human trafficking, restrictions on movement and humanitarian access, attacks on civilians, and impediments to legal identity and justice. Despite significant challenges, humanitarian partners and government entities are working to provide essential protection services and strengthen local capacities.
Why It Matters
This document provides a critical 2026 assessment of the complex interplay between conflict, climate change, and socio-economic factors driving humanitarian crises in Ethiopia, offering insights into civilian protection challenges and the operational environment for aid. It is crucial for understanding the multifaceted security and humanitarian landscape in a strategically important region.
Key Takeaways
- Ethiopia is grappling with a multi-faceted crisis in 2026, combining armed violence, localized insecurity, and severe climate shocks, leading to widespread displacement and protection needs.
Source evidence · PDF page 2
In 2026, Ethiopia continues to face multiple, compounding crises of armed violence, localized insecurity, and the increasing impacts of climate variability and environmental shocks, as well as localized pressures on land, resources, and governance structures.
- Gender-based violence, including conflict-related sexual violence and child marriage, is a systemic risk exacerbated by conflict, displacement, and economic instability, with significant barriers to reporting and survivor support.
Source evidence · PDF page 6
Gender-Based Violence (GBV), encompassing Conflict-Related Sexual Violence (CRSV), Intimate Partner Violence (IPV), Child, Early, or Forced Marriage (CEFM), and Female Genital Mutilation (FGM), constitutes a systemic protection risk across Ethiopia. Active armed conflict, severe population displacement, recurring climate shocks, and macroeconomic instability compound community vulnerabilities, depleting traditional household coping mechanisms and exposing women and girls to severe risks of exploitation, abuse, and physical harm.
- Explosive ordnance contamination, particularly in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara, remains a persistent threat, restricting movement, livelihoods, and access to essential services, with children disproportionately affected.
Source evidence · PDF page 11
Landmines and explosive remnants of war (ERW) contamination entrench displacement, restrict recovery, limit movement and pose a persistent barrier to the safety of affected populations. In conflict-affected regions, such as Tigray, Afar, and Amhara, communities are often unable to access farms, grazing routes, water sources, schools, and health facilities due to fear of triggering hidden ERW and other types of unexploded ordnance, undermining livelihoods and exacerbating food insecurity.
Strategic Relevance
This report highlights the severe and compounding humanitarian and security challenges in Ethiopia, driven by internal conflicts, climate change, and regional instability. It underscores the fragility of governance, the vulnerability of civilian populations, and the critical need for sustained international engagement to prevent further destabilization in the Horn of Africa.