Executive Summary
Indonesia has adopted a dual-track Nusantara Defense Strategy (SPN) to manage geopolitical volatility in the South China Sea, combining deterrence-by-denial with cooperative hedging. This strategy involves military modernization, including advanced fighter jets and missile systems, while maintaining diplomatic flexibility to avoid great power polarization. Its long-term success depends on overcoming internal budgetary and institutional challenges.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense analysts as it details Indonesia's evolving defense strategy in the contested South China Sea, showcasing a middle power's approach to balancing deterrence and diplomatic hedging amidst great power competition.
Key Takeaways
- Indonesia's Nusantara Defense Strategy (SPN) employs a dual-track approach of deterrence-by-denial and cooperative hedging to protect its interests in the South China Sea.
Source evidence · PDF page 1
Indonesia pursues a deterrence-by-denial posture particularly in the North Natuna Sea, while simultaneously employing a hedging strategy to preserve its free and active foreign policy. This dual-track approach enables the state to modernize its military capabilities, such as the acquisition of advanced fighter jets and missile systems, without succumbing to the pressures of Great Power polarization.
- The SPN drives military modernization, including the acquisition of advanced submarines, long-range missiles, and fighter jets, to impose prohibitive costs on potential aggressors in the North Natuna Sea.
Source evidence · PDF page 12
By procuring submarines, long-range missiles, advanced fighter aircraft, and integrated surveillance networks, Indonesia intends to impose prohibitive operational costs on any potential aggressor across the maritime, aerial, and coastal domains of the North Natuna Sea.
- Indonesia's hedging strategy involves diversifying strategic partnerships and maintaining economic ties with China, allowing it to enhance military capabilities without committing to formal alliances or polarized bloc politics.
Source evidence · PDF page 17
This balance, albeit inconsistent, reaffirms Indonesia’s hedging strategy orientation, meaning the diversification of strategic partnerships without committing to hard balancing, achieved through selective security cooperation and the maintenance of positive relations with China.
Strategic Relevance
The SPN represents a sophisticated adaptation by a key regional power to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics, offering a model for other middle powers seeking to enhance strategic autonomy and deter aggression without full alignment with major powers.