Executive Summary
This report analyzes how developments in non-nuclear command and control (C2) and counter-C2 systems impact strategic stability. It highlights the increasing complexity, speed, and interconnectivity of C2 systems, driven by emerging technologies like AI, which introduce new vulnerabilities and risks of miscalculation. The study emphasizes that institutional adaptation, not just technology, will determine the effectiveness of future C2, and recommends strengthening governance and human competence.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it examines how evolving military command and control systems, particularly with AI integration, directly influence strategic stability and the risk of conflict escalation.
Key Takeaways
- Non-nuclear C2 systems are rapidly becoming more complex, interconnected, and faster due to emerging technologies like AI, increasing both capabilities and vulnerabilities.
Source evidence · PDF page 4
Non-nuclear C2 systems are becoming more complex, fast-moving and interconnected. Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, advanced sensing, synthetic environments and human–machine teaming offer opportunities to enhance decision support and increase operational tempo.
- Poorly implemented automation in C2 can destabilize strategic decision-making by leading to opaque actions, overwhelming human analysis, and reducing reliance on human judgment.
Source evidence · PDF page 26
Automation of decision making can become a source of instability. When implemented poorly, automated decision making can lead to opaque and unexplainable actions, analytical processes that are too fast and complex for humans to understand, and a reduced reliance on human oversight, military judgement and expertise.
- Effective governance and international cooperation, especially in early-stage technology development, are essential to mitigate risks and enhance strategic stability in C2 systems.
Source evidence · PDF page 50
The FCDO should work to deepen trust and transparency in emerging technologies for non-nuclear C2. The most feasible governance options to ensure and enhance strategic stability involve focusing on early‑stage cooperation mechanisms, such as shared research, joint experimentation environments and multilateral technology ‑development fora, which should be promoted internationally when possible.
Strategic Relevance
The report directly addresses the strategic implications of advanced C2 and counter-C2 systems, including the potential for arms-race dynamics, miscalculation, and the critical role of commercial infrastructure in military operations, impacting national security and alliance interoperability.