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Trilateral Strategic Competition in a Deteriorating Global Security Environment: Implications for U.S. Integrated Deterrence

NPS Calhoun · Aleksandar Matovski ·

Executive Summary

This research analyzes the Sino-Russian partnership's trajectory and its implications for U.S. integrated deterrence amidst a deteriorating global security environment. It identifies pathways for Russian nuclear escalation and assesses Taiwanese security experts' views on regional security, highlighting China's military expansion. The study emphasizes the need for strengthened deterrence and cooperation.

Why It Matters

This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it directly addresses the evolving trilateral strategic competition between the U.S., Russia, and China, and its implications for integrated deterrence and regional stability.

Key Takeaways

  • The Sino-Russian partnership is a key factor shaping great power competition, with implications for U.S. integrated deterrence strategies.
    Source evidence · PDF page 3
    This research examines the trajectory and deterrence implications of the Sino-Russian partnership in light of two disruptive developments likely to shape great power competition in the coming period.
  • Russian nuclear escalation risks are primarily rooted in domestic political dynamics, requiring tailored deterrence options that exploit regime vulnerabilities.
    Source evidence · PDF page 3
    The first develops a comprehensive framework for assessing the risks of Russian nuclear escalation since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and for evaluating Western deterrence assumptions and strategies.
  • Taiwanese security experts perceive a deteriorating regional environment due to China's military expansion and advocate for increased defense investment and deeper security cooperation with the U.S. and allies.
    Source evidence · PDF page 3
    The study on Taiwanese views on regional security in Asia finds that the experts interviewed see the environment as having deteriorated in response to China’s military expansion and growing assertiveness, and that they support greater investment in defense and deeper security cooperation with the United States and other regional partners to strengthen deterrence.

Strategic Relevance

This research provides critical insights into the complex dynamics of trilateral strategic competition, offering frameworks for understanding nuclear deterrence and regional security perceptions in the Indo-Pacific. It directly informs U.S. integrated deterrence policy and strategic planning against major adversaries.

Source Website View PDF

Key Entities

United StatesRussiaChinaTaiwanNaval Postgraduate SchoolNATOIndo-PacificUkrainePutin regime

Best For

Policy MakersDefense StrategistsIntelligence AnalystsAcademicsMilitary Planners

Related Themes

Great Power CompetitionNuclear DeterrenceIndo-Pacific SecuritySino-Russian RelationsTaiwan Strait Conflict

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