Executive Summary
This paper reviews the intersection of geoeconomics and conflict, highlighting the increasing use of economic weapons and other aggressive interventions short of war. It examines the relationship between trade and war, the impact of geoeconomic tools like sanctions and aid, and the rising trend of international warfare. The authors propose future research directions to better understand the geoeconomic toolkit and its effects on conflict likelihood.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it synthesizes the evolving landscape of geoeconomic tools and their impact on international conflict, moving beyond traditional military analysis to include economic coercion and hybrid warfare tactics.
Key Takeaways
- Geoeconomics encompasses a broader toolkit than just economic sanctions, including sabotage, cyberattacks, covert operations, and sponsorship of terrorism or insurgency.
Source evidence · PDF page 3
First, we call for a broader view of the geoeconomic toolkit, as rogue leaders do not limit themselves to economic coercion. In addition to economic weapons, future research should also consider more aggressive—and often costlier—forms of intervention short of war, including sabotage, cyberattacks, covert operations, and the sponsorship of terrorism or insurgency.
- International warfare and geopolitical tensions are on the rise globally, exemplified by conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Sahel, challenging the liberal globalization premise of reduced conflict.
Source evidence · PDF page 4
Today, however, we are witnessing the return of international warfare. Figure 1 shows that from around 2015 onwards, fatalities from international conflict events have exceeded those from purely domestic events.1 The rising threat of external war is exemplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and international involvement in recent conflicts in Gaza, Sudan, Syria, Yemen, and the Sahel.
- The effectiveness of geoeconomic tools like sanctions and foreign aid in deterring or provoking conflict is complex and context-dependent, requiring further research into their causal mechanisms and domestic political economy implications.
Source evidence · PDF page 13
A fundamental promise of liberal globalization is that, by deepening economic integration between nations, it will render war more costly and thus more rare. Moreover, to sustain peace, members of the international community will be able to deploy (or threaten to deploy) economic weapons rather than physical weapons to coerce potential belligerents and maintain order.
Strategic Relevance
The paper provides a comprehensive framework for understanding how economic power is leveraged in international relations, influencing the likelihood and nature of conflict. It highlights the shift towards 'war by other means' and the need for a broader analytical perspective on geopolitical competition.