Executive Summary
This article examines hedging as a security strategy for restrained middle powers, focusing on Türkiye's approach to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. It argues that hedging offers a viable alternative for Türkiye to address contemporary challenges and enhance its gains in a multipolar world. The analysis suggests that Türkiye's recent foreign policy reflects a shift towards a more cautious and balanced strategy, aligning with the principles of hedging.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it provides a framework for understanding how middle powers like Türkiye navigate complex international relations, particularly in balancing relations with major powers amidst conflicts like the Ukraine war.
Key Takeaways
- The hedging strategy offers a realistic and optimal approach for restrained middle powers to achieve foreign policy objectives and mitigate risks in a multipolar international order.
Source evidence · PDF page 2
Therefore, it is argued that the hedging strategy, which has been extensively discussed and developed as an analytical tool, offers a realistic and optimal strategic alternative that can yield the desired outcomes for RMPs at the international level. This article aims to demonstrate that the hedging strategy is the most suitable approach to provide a theoretical and analytical framework for the RMP strategy. In doing so, it examines Türkiye’s attitude toward the rising local great power, Russia, following the invasion of Ukraine. Nearly three years into the war, a retrospective analysis reveals how Türkiye has adopted a relatively modest approach that significantly aligns with the hedging strategy. The short-term success of the Turkish approach toward Russia thus far illustrates how a comprehensive hedging strategy can assist Türkiye as an RMP in achieving its objectives in line with its capabilities.
- Türkiye's security strategy should involve curtailing its commitment to NATO while maintaining a delicate balance with Russia to avoid abandonment and introduce caution into Russian actions.
Source evidence · PDF page 10
Therefore, Türkiye, similar to the Western allies in Asia, is one of those states that cannot and should not rely on a single bloc or alliance with relatively vague provisions regarding support against aggression. Shifting power dynamics, coupled with the United States’ increasingly restrained approach to direct involvement in global disputes, have cast doubt on the reliability of the security assurances enshrined in Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. This security environment dictates two strategic priorities for Türkiye: keeping as many strategic options as possible and avoiding antagonism toward Russia. It is worth noting that this does not suggest a complete decoupling from the Western alliance. However, Ankara should build its security strategy on curtailing its commitment to NATO while walking a fine line with Russia. Only such a nuanced approach can help mitigate Türkiye’s fear of abandonment in the face of growing Russian aggressiveness and introduce a certain degree of caution in Russia’s actions.
- Türkiye's cautious and balanced approach to the war in Ukraine, contrasting with its past overambitious actions in Syria, demonstrates the effectiveness of a mixed strategy based on relative equidistance from great powers.
Source evidence · PDF page 11
Illustrative of this are the differences between Türkiye’s approaches to Syria and Ukraine. The shifting Western strategic considerations in Syria dragged Türkiye into a vexing quagmire (Oğuzlu, 2023, p. 7) and prompted Ankara to undertake ambitious military operations beyond its capabilities while providing support for anti-government rebel groups. This, in turn, left Türkiye isolated against Russia and its proxies on the ground, causing it to fail to fully achieve its objectives and pay a heavy price. Even worse, the experience in Syria has further aggravated Türkiye’s isolation on the international stage, which stemmed from its past OMP strategies and was once thought to be “precious” (Oğuzlu, 2023, p. 8). Having learned from its failure in Syria, Türkiye has been more cautious and balanced in its approach to Ukraine. Ankara did not hesitate to make its position clear by publicly condemning the invasion and providing military support to Kyiv (Daily Sabah, 2022). However, through skillful diplomacy and well-calculated actions this time, Türkiye did not allow its stance to alienate Russia or alter the cooperative nature of its relations with Moscow. By abstaining from
Strategic Relevance
The article provides a theoretical and practical framework for understanding the strategic behavior of middle powers in a multipolar world, particularly their use of hedging to manage relations with great powers and enhance national security and interests. It highlights the importance of nuanced diplomatic and security approaches in complex geopolitical landscapes.