Executive Summary
This RAND Corporation paper proposes a "Freedom of Action" strategy for the U.S. to navigate the uncertain path to superintelligence, aiming to secure geopolitical advantage and ensure humanity's survival. It identifies seven archetypal strategies and five pivotal uncertainties, arguing against premature commitment or prolonged deferral. The strategy emphasizes building capabilities and monitoring the technological and strategic environment to maintain flexibility.
Why It Matters
This document outlines a strategic framework for the U.S. to manage the geopolitical implications of advanced AI, which is critical for national security and maintaining global influence in an era of rapid technological change and great power competition.
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. should adopt a "Freedom of Action" strategy to secure geopolitical advantage and ensure human survival amidst the development of superintelligence.
Source evidence · PDF page 5
We therefore recommend a Freedom of Action strategy: Build and preserve freedom of action to secure geopolitical advantage and ensure humanity’s survival with age
- This strategy involves building and preserving the capacity to execute any of seven archetypal AI strategies as evidence resolves pivotal uncertainties.
Source evidence · PDF page 10
We therefore recommend a Freedom of Action strategy: Build and preserve freedom of action to secure geopolitical advantage and ensure humanity’s survival with agency through the transition to superintelligence.
- Key investments include developing a human-AI ecosystem, an AI security architecture, adapting national security enterprises, and enhancing societal capacity to respond to AI-driven disruption.
Source evidence · PDF page 28
Build and preserve freedom of action to secure geopolitical advantage and ensure humanity’s survival with agency through the transition to superintelligence: the capacity to seize advantage as windows of opportunity open and to pursue whichever of the seven strategies the uncertainties come to favor.
Strategic Relevance
The paper provides a framework for U.S. grand strategy concerning artificial superintelligence, emphasizing adaptability and proactive capability building in a competitive geopolitical landscape. It addresses the long-term implications of AI for national security, power dynamics, and human agency.