Executive Summary
This paper examines Türkiye's strategic pivot towards BRICS membership, analyzing the factors driving its eastward drift and the implications for global geopolitics. It employs neoclassical realism, complex interdependence, and constructivism to explain how domestic politics, economic diversification, and identity shifts enable Türkiye's pursuit of strategic autonomy. The study highlights tensions between NATO commitments and potential BRICS membership, alongside economic opportunities and challenges.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it dissects Türkiye's strategic reorientation towards BRICS, challenging traditional alliance structures and influencing global power transitions. Understanding this shift is vital for assessing the future of NATO, regional security dynamics, and the evolving multipolar world order.
Key Takeaways
- Türkiye's BRICS bid is driven by domestic political consolidation, economic diversification, and a shifting national identity towards strategic autonomy.
- The move creates significant tensions with Türkiye's NATO commitments and Western alliances, while offering alternative economic and financial partnerships.
- This case study demonstrates how middle powers can leverage changing global dynamics to enhance influence and reshape alliance structures in a multipolar world.
Strategic Relevance
Türkiye's potential BRICS membership significantly impacts NATO cohesion, Black Sea security, and regional power balances in the Middle East and Central Asia. It represents a strategic hedging maneuver by a key middle power, influencing the durability of Cold War-era alliances and the emergence of alternative global governance structures.