Executive Summary
This paper presents initial observations from the Camp(ai)gn wargame, exploring how AI might change military planning and combat in a future U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan. The game, set in 2035, features sophisticated competitors using AI-enabled capabilities across all domains. Key findings suggest AI expands decision space, enables new forms of limited conflict, and influences escalation dynamics.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense analysts as it uses wargaming to explore the operational implications of AI in a potential U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan, offering insights into future warfare, escalation management, and strategic decision-making.
Key Takeaways
- AI-enabled autonomous systems could facilitate new forms of limited conflict, characterized by protracted, low-intensity engagements with significant robotic attrition.
- The 'gold-blood' balance shifts with autonomous systems, potentially leading to distinct escalation dynamics where loss of equipment is less escalatory than human casualties.
- China's potential advantage in autonomous mass production could become critical in protracted conflicts, influencing the sustainment and outcome of future engagements.
Strategic Relevance
This analysis provides critical insights into the potential strategic and operational impacts of AI on future great-power conflicts, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. It highlights how AI could reshape military doctrine, force structure, and escalation management, offering a framework for understanding future competitive dynamics and informing defense planning.