Executive Summary
This paper assesses India's role in the final years of the Sri Lankan civil war (2003-2009), analyzing its inability to act as a regional conflict manager despite its power. It explains India's policy shift in 2007, moving from non-interference to supporting the Sri Lankan government's military offensive, driven by domestic pressures and growing Chinese influence in the region.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense analysts as it dissects the complex interplay of regional power dynamics, domestic politics, and external influence in a protracted civil conflict, offering insights into India's strategic calculus and the limitations of regional conflict management.
Key Takeaways
- India's historical failures (IPKF, Rajiv Gandhi assassination) initially led to a 'hands-off' policy in the Sri Lankan civil war.
- Domestic political pressures from Tamil Nadu influenced India's indecisive stance but were ultimately overridden by broader strategic concerns.
- India's policy shifted in 2007 to support the Sri Lankan government's military offensive, primarily to counter growing Chinese and Pakistani influence in Sri Lanka.
Strategic Relevance
The document highlights the strategic importance of regional powers' foreign policy decisions in managing internal conflicts, especially when external actors (like China) challenge established regional hegemonies. It demonstrates how geopolitical competition can override humanitarian concerns and traditional diplomatic stances.