Executive Summary
This paper analyzes the impact of NATO and EU enlargements on the Montreux Convention, which governs the Turkish Straits. It examines how the changing geopolitical landscape in the Black Sea, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western expansion, influences the Convention's role in regional security. The authors use securitization theory to explain how both Russia and the Western bloc perceive the region as a security problem.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it dissects the complex interplay between international treaties, regional security, and great power competition in a critical maritime chokepoint. Understanding the Montreux Convention's evolving status is vital for assessing naval access, regional stability, and potential flashpoints in the Black Sea.
Key Takeaways
- The Montreux Convention, while favoring Black Sea littoral states, faces increasing pressure from NATO/EU enlargements and Russia's assertive actions.
- Both Russia and the Western bloc (NATO/EU) employ securitization strategies, viewing the Black Sea and Turkish Straits as critical security concerns.
- Turkey's role as the Convention's guardian is becoming more challenging amidst escalating tensions, potentially forcing difficult neutrality decisions.
- The Montreux Convention is not unalterable, and its future is subject to review and amendment, especially given the current geopolitical shifts.
- The Black Sea has become a 'fighting ground' for global powers, with the Turkish Straits at its heart, impacting trade, energy, and military dynamics.
Strategic Relevance
The Montreux Convention dictates naval access to the Black Sea, directly impacting military power projection and regional stability. Changes to its regime would significantly alter the strategic balance between Russia and NATO, affecting maritime security, trade routes, and the potential for conflict escalation in a critical geopolitical region.