Executive Summary
This study develops a comprehensive national security risk assessment model, focusing on political security in China as a case study. Utilizing game theory and simulated annealing optimization, the model assesses political security risks, finding a significant decline in China's political security risk from 2001 to 2022, with projections for continued decrease. The proposed framework offers theoretical guidance and methodological support for evaluating national security risks across various domains.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense and geopolitical analysts as it presents a novel, data-driven methodology for assessing national security risks, specifically political security, with an empirical application to China. Understanding such assessment frameworks is vital for evaluating state stability and potential vulnerabilities in a key global power.
Key Takeaways
- China's political security risk has significantly declined from 76.39 in 2001 to 24.99 in 2022, with projections to 11.00 by 2032.
- The developed national security risk assessment model integrates risk control processes, assessment factors, and an optimized evaluation method (SAO-PPE).
- Political stability is identified as the most critical secondary indicator, having the greatest impact on China's political security risk.
- The BP neural network model demonstrated superior predictive performance among five compared models for forecasting political security risks.
Strategic Relevance
The study provides a methodological framework for national security risk assessment, which is strategically important for understanding and predicting state stability and vulnerabilities. Its application to China's political security offers insights into Beijing's internal security perceptions and the factors it prioritizes, influencing its grand strategy and international behavior.