Executive Summary
This RAND report develops methodologies to forecast future U.S.-China space competition using open-source data, focusing on R&D efforts and capabilities. It employs quantitative regression analysis and qualitative topic modeling of Chinese-language research to identify potential blind spots. The study aims to help U.S. planners maintain an advantage in the space domain by anticipating China's advancements.
Why It Matters
This document provides critical methodologies for defense and geopolitical analysts to proactively assess the evolving U.S.-China space competition, offering insights into future capabilities and potential blind spots. Understanding these trends is vital for strategic planning and maintaining a competitive edge in the space domain.
Key Takeaways
- China has a 20% chance of surpassing the U.S. in annual space launches by 2030, increasing if U.S. R&D and economic inputs decline.
- The U.S. maintains a significant advantage in payload multiplexing, deploying more payloads per launch despite fewer total launches.
- PLA-funded research shows propulsion and additive manufacturing as top aerospace R&D interests, with ground telemetry research potentially moving to less public settings.
- Recommendations include maintaining academic collaboration, R&D investments, and focusing on novel manufacturing techniques to counter China's advancements.
Strategic Relevance
This report offers a framework for understanding and forecasting the strategic balance in the critical space domain between the U.S. and China. Its methodologies provide tools for anticipating adversary capabilities, informing procurement decisions, and developing strategies to maintain a competitive advantage, thereby directly impacting national security and military effectiveness.