Executive Summary
This essay explores the long-standing practice of intentionally ignoring nuclear winter in US nuclear strategy, analyzing its impact on deterrence, warfighting, and crisis management. It identifies two main reasons for this: a single state's limited ability to mitigate consequences and the perceived disadvantage of being more concerned about nuclear winter. The authors argue for revisiting this approach, especially as nuclear war risks grow, advocating for a balanced policy analysis and scientific program.
Why It Matters
This document is crucial for defense analysts as it critically examines the foundational assumptions of nuclear strategy by integrating the catastrophic, yet often ignored, concept of nuclear winter, directly impacting deterrence theory and risk assessment. It highlights the strategic implications of acknowledging or dismissing such global catastrophic risks in an era of increasing nuclear proliferation and geopolitical tension.
Key Takeaways
- US nuclear strategy intentionally ignores nuclear winter due to limited unilateral mitigation capabilities and the perceived strategic disadvantage of showing concern.
- The prospect of nuclear winter significantly impacts deterrence, warfighting, and crisis management, but its influence is often downplayed or exploited for strategic gain.
- The authors advocate for a comprehensive scientific and policy analysis program to integrate nuclear winter considerations into nuclear strategy, balancing risk mitigation with effective deterrence.
- The Cold War saw Soviet attempts to manipulate US nuclear policy by exploiting fears of nuclear winter, highlighting the geopolitical weaponization of such scientific concepts.
Strategic Relevance
This analysis directly challenges the underlying assumptions of nuclear deterrence and warfighting by reintroducing the concept of nuclear winter as a global catastrophic risk. It has significant strategic relevance for policy makers considering nuclear posture, arms control, and crisis management, particularly in a multipolar world where nuclear proliferation and regional conflicts are increasing.